Last weekend, I went to one of the largest "retail" gun shows that the West has to offer in Orange County, California. Being behind the Orange Curtain was strange enough, but I hadn't attended an "official" gun show in the better part of 4 years.
Well, everything you've heard about "panic" buying is real. I didn't even have to ask, I simply listened to the others who were asking.
"Are these prices for real?" "Weren't these like $80 last September?" "Are you guys just jacking up your prices because there's a black man in the Offal Office?"
For starters, if you are too damned dumb to understand how economics works, as in supply and demand, then this blog will not help you. However, if you understand that when the supply (the basic availability of an item) of an item is decreased then the price of the remaining available items will increase. So, long about 6 months ago, July, 2008, as I recall, I began to see multiple stories in the "conservative" and gun nut press that high capacity magazines and civilian semi auto rifles were leaving store shelves in record numbers. By the time the yellow-stream media got around to reporting it in the "press" in October, most shelves were already empty.
Back to the OC. Lines for getting in at $14 a pop were 20-deep 2 hours after the doors had opened at the fairgrounds. Normally, dealers and vendors are set up throughout the 3 main facilities. This time, and entire hall had been set aside just for "AMMO SALES." Seeing that giant banner hung above the door made my heart race a little. As I approached the door, I saw two middle-aged Asian males each with a handcart "dolly" stacked almost as tall as they were, all with ammo cases. Together, they had probably close to 12-15,000 rounds of .223, .22LR, .45ACP and 10MM. And they weren't the only ones buying "bulk."
Being an accountant and financial analyst has given me great insight as to how money and prices affect consumers. I've kept most of the "large ticket" items purchases from the last 10 years. Most good CPAs will tell you to keep your records for a minimum of 7 years. I have receipts from ammo purchases in 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2003.
The oldest receipt I have is for 9milli, at $9.95 for 50 rounds in 1998 at the Cow Palace in San Francisco. In 2001, for instance, a 50 round box of 10MM pistol ammo was $10.95. In 2003, it was $12.95. On this past Sunday, it was $16.95 for the same box of 10MM, an almost 50% increase. The line for .308 Winny, 30-ought-6, and .223 (5.56 NATO) was around the table, so I didn't even bother. Most other tables were cleaned out of large-caliber rifle ammo before we even got there on Sunday.
Panic buying is for real, and not just for the newly-aware suburbanites, either. Grizzled old vets, survivalists, your 6Th grade history teacher, fucking-A, everyone was there trying to get GATted up. One of the vendors I had actually purchased from back in the 1990s in NorCal was explaining to a concerned citizen that his prices were reflective of the wholesalers' prices to him, and those were reflective of the higher prices that Manufacturers were charging wholesalers (supply and demand.) In other words, just because Jim's prices were 20% higher than they were last year, it's not like Jim is making an additional 20% profit on each sale. Far from it. Exhibitors fees have risen, gas was at $4.50 a gallon last year and most of these folks live/work on the road out of their RVs, so it was a big hit to their bottom line. Many of them, mostly the smaller mom and pop operations simply stopped selling on the road.
So, the supply has decreased, the demand has more than increased, and there seems to be no stopping to this pattern. Buy it, use it, stay prepared. The time for catching up is nigh upon us. Once the Schumer hits the fan, it'll be too late for you to try to gear up. Use the time that you've been given wisely. Or else be prepared to accept the consequences.
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